Showing posts with label sofosbuvir. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sofosbuvir. Show all posts

Saturday, 7 December 2013

APPROVED: Gilead Sovaldi (sofosbuvir) for the treatment of Hepatitis C. What Next?

Gilead Sciences' Sovaldi (sofosbuvir), the revolutionary oral Hepatitis C drug, received approval after Nasdaq closing on Friday, keeping any subsequent stock movements a mystery until Monday.




Sovaldi has been so hyped up because it is a liver-targeting nucleoside analogue, or "nuke" - a class of drugs which has had a long and troublesome battle with late-stage clinical trials before due to high risk of hepatic toxicity. Sovaldi is also the only oral HCV treatment which does not require co-treatment with the infamous interferon - an self-injectable drug whose side effects, such as hair loss, depression, nausea and headaches are so severe and debilitating, many patients have been putting off therapy for years in hopes for new drugs to reach the market. Prior to Sovaldi's positive news, many patients were "warehoused" by doctors on high hopes of approval, particularly following a unanimously favorable AdCom just a month prior. If only Keith Richards, Steven Tyler and Pamela Anderson had known earlier. 

The Sovaldi hype also managed to suck the wind out Vertex's sales (pun intended) of Incivek (telaprevir), whose royalties the company now spun off to Janssen, cutting 370 jobs.

Sovaldi is the third ever drug to receive a Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) status from the FDA, as Hepatitis C, although slow to manifest, is commonly fatal. The BTD served to significantly speed up the drug's market entry and saved Gilead a nifty sum on extensive Phase III trials. Despite this, Sovaldi is expected to cost $1,000 a day, which translates into $84,000 for a regular course of treatment or $168,000 for more severe, chronic cases of HCV. Pretty high for a drug targeting upward of 80% of a 3-million-infections-a-year market, and expected to rake in up to $7 billion a year. In the U.S., the drug will be covered by insurance.

It is not all smooth sailing from now on for Sovaldi, however. Abbvie/Enanta's non-nuke interferon-free ABT-450, which just completed Phase III, allegedly helped 96% of HCV genotype 1 variant (70% of all sufferers) patients in clinical trials, and is due to file an NDA in the first quarter of 2014. Likewise Bristol-Myers Squibb's world's first interferon-free and ribavirin-free combination of daclatasvir and asunaprevir was shown effective in treating 84.7% of interferon-ineligible patients. In an attempt to avoid the game of musical chairs in the U.S. Hep C market, BMS went straight for the 3-million-sufferer market of Japan, filing for approval there on November 4. How the nuke/non-nuke game will pan out remains to be seen. 



Friday, 6 December 2013

Gilead stock trending up on anticipated sofosbuvir approval on Sunday, Auxilium surges intraday prior to Xiaflex Peyronie's verdict

The FDA is due to deliver two drug approval verdicts today and over the weekend on Gilead's Sovali (sofosbuvir) for the treatment of Hepatitis C and Auxilium's Xiaflex (collagenase Clostridium histolyticum) for the treatment of Peyronie's disease.

Following a unanimously positive FDA AdCom review, Sovaldi is likely set to reach the market by Sunday. The public seems to agree, with a 93% confidence vote on our LinkedIn FDA approvals group.

Gilead's stock is steadily trending on the positive expectations today: 





Auxilium, despite a generally positive stock performance, continues to evoke mixed feelings from analysts and followers. Questions remain about whether the limited benefits of Xiaflex compensate for the relatively serious side effects. Despite this, Peyronie's disease sufferers are seemingly psyched for the drug to reach the market, according to the Peyronie's grapevine

Despite the side effects, Xiaflex would automatically provide benefits for the sufferers as it would be the first and only non-surgical treatment for Peyronie's disease. Without an AdCom, the general gist is that FDA can go either way on this Xiaflex sBLA. General expectations for AUXL's stock price are slightly on the negative side, trending in the $15-20$'s, judging by a few votes on this poll.

Here is what AUXL looks like right now: 






According to a recent press release by Auxilium: 
Highlights of the data presented related to the use of XIAFLEX in PD include:
  • An open-label baseline analysis from IMPRESS 3 showed a mean penile curvature deformity (PCD) of 53.0 degrees and a mean PD symptom bother score of 7.3. In this study, both co-primary endpoints of change in PCD and PD symptom bother were met with statistical significance compared to baseline. The mean percent change in PCD was 34.4 percent and the mean change in PD symptom bother score was 3.3 from baseline. 
  • An additional poster examined different subgroups of men treated with XIAFLEX based on their prior PD treatment, erectile dysfunction scores and prostatectomy history. The clinical outcomes related to PCD and PD bother did not vary among these subgroups. 
  • A third presentation of the Phase 3 data compared adverse events related to XIAFLEX injections among men with a curvature greater than or equal to 30 degrees versus lesser than 30 degrees, and concluded that there was no clinically meaningful difference.
Yesterday Moody's Investors Service downgraded AUXL from "stable" to "negative" outlook,  mostly related to Auxilium's marketed drug Testim. We are still hoping for positive news today!